Monday, November 01, 2004

Predictions?

Give me your best guess - as we use to say in the infantry, "SWAG" it. (Scientific "Wild-Ass" Guess).

You can use %'s or electoral votes.

Remember, the magic number of electoral votes needed is 270 (1 more than half of the 538 electoral vote total).

A candidate can win the % of the popular vote and lose the electoral college - as happened in 2000 when half a million more Americans voted for Gore than for Bush. So if you use %'s indicate the winner as well. Such as "Kerry 48.1 %, Bush 48.0 %, Nader 3.9 % - Bush."

Here is my guess, and I will repeat Vrangel's as well:

My guess:

Kerry 306 electoral votes, 48.9%, Bush 232 electoral votes, 48.4%, Nader 0 electoral votes, 2.5%, others .1% (including a write-in for Lefty cancelled out by a write-in for Ala71).

Vrangel says Bush 52%, Kerry 48%, Nader a fraction, Bush elected.


5 comments:

TonyaCz said...

Oh GOD I hope YOU are right. Thanks for your insights.

TonyaCz said...

Oh GOD I hope YOU are right. Thanks for your insights.

vrangel said...

Nader 2.5% ? Are you kidding? Who is gonna vote for him with real candidates so different and this close. No way he is getting even 1% IMHO.

Go Bush !

vrangel said...

Crap, on tradesports.com BUSH contract plunged to 30%, while KERRY is at 70%.
Not a good sign... :(

vrangel said...

Woo, what a rollercoaster. Fox just called Ohio for Bush. It's over.
Congradulations/condolences to everyone. :)

TWD, break out some beer, I'll vote for Hillary in 2008. :^D